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IMPROVE BOP PATTERN SCORES & GET EARLY RELEASE
Click below for PATTERN Risk and Needs Assessment Under the First Step Act.
INTRODUCTION
PATTERN is the Bureau of Prisons’ risk assessment tool used to predict the likelihood that a person in federal prison will re-offend upon release.
PATTERN stands for Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs. Under PATTERN, the BOP is supposed to offer people the chance to lower their PATTERN scores so they can reduce their recidivism risk and qualify for early release and other benefits.
DISCUSSION
Congress has tasked the BOP with offering people BOP programs and activities that can best address their risk profile and lower their chances of re-offending upon release.
Significantly, people with the higher PATTERN scores can take steps to improve their PATTERN scores, as discussed below.
How does the PATTERN score affect chances for early release?
There are 4 PATTERN risk scores:
- minimum
- low
- medium, and
- high-risk.
Only people with minimum or low PATTERN scores qualify for early release under the First Step Act earned time credits program.
Moreover, the BOP often limits other BOP programs and privileges to people with low or minimum PATTERN scores. That has certainly been the case in the last couple of years with the CARES Act COVID-19 releases and other compassionate releases.
So what’s a person to do if they are currently scoring higher than a minimum?
Fortunately, there are a few ways to improve PATTERN scores over time. Depending on the individual case, people who are currently scoring higher than a minimum on PATTERN can work their way down.
Pro-Tip: Eligibility for early release is a function of a person’s PATTERN risk level (assuming they don’t have a disqualifying offense).
What does the PATTERN score measure?
The BOP’s PATTERN tool measures federal prisoners for their risk of recidivism or re-offending. Based on each person’s recidivism risk, the BOP will assign specific programs and activities to reduce that risk. Successful completion of the programs assigned reduces PATTERN scores over time.
How does the BOP calculate PATTERN scores?
The BOP calculates a prisoner’s PATTERN score as 2 separate scores: a person’s general risk of re-offending, and their risk of re-offending with an act of violence. These scores determine whether someone is in a minimum-, low-, medium-, or high-risk category for re-offending.
Specifically, PATTERN consists of two different assessments. One predicts the risk of any re-arrest within 3 years of release from prison, and another focuses on the potential for re-arrest for a violent offense. If a person receives two different scores and risk classifications, their final classification of risk will be the higher of the two.
Click below to see The First Step Act Risk Assessment Tool in action:
Can a person reduce their PATTERN score or PATTERN risk level?
Yes. BOP must regularly reassess each person’s PATTERN score because PATTERN scores are not meant to be static. People can work to lower their PATTERN risk level by taking evidence-based recidivism-reducing programs and productive activities and maintaining clear conduct.
A key idea behind PATTERN is to develop a system that can accurately measure a person’s change during their incarceration, thus providing people with opportunities to reduce their recidivism risk scores while in prison.
To lower their PATTERN score and risk classification, people have to show measurable “change during their incarceration.”
What dynamic factors does PATTERN take into account?
PATTERN’s dynamic factors are those that can change over time while in prison, including by treatment and programs—for example, the time since a person’s last infraction for violating prison rules. Participation in education, mental health, or drug treatment programs is also a dynamic factor.
In developing PATTERN, the BOP must accurately measure a person’s change during incarceration and provide opportunities for people to reduce their risk scores during periodic reassessments.
One of the PATTERN measurements is a prisoner’s “infraction free” period, referring to how long a person is in prison without incurring any incident reports for violating prison rules.
How can PATTERN scores change during incarceration?
A person can improve their PATTERN score by participating in specific BOP programs and productive activities and maintaining clear conduct.
BOP has added many programs and UNICOR to the programs that benefit a prisoner’s PATTERN score, based on proven evidence that they reduce a person’s recidivism risk.
The list of evidence-based programs (EBRR) that help reduce PATTERN can also qualify people for First Step Act earned time credits. The BOP program list includes working at UNICOR, vocational programs and apprenticeships, all drug programs, GED high school equivalency, and ESL (English as a second language). New programs offer cognitive behavioral therapy to address everything from food disorders, insomnia, gambling, and anger management.
See below for BOP List of Approved Programs:
For example, one of the BOP-approved programs is called BRAVE (Bureau Rehabilitation and Values Enhancement). BRAVE is a novel cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) program for young males on their first offense, runs for six months, 20 hours per week.
The PATTERN risk factors that raise or lower a person’s risk can also estimate whether they qualify for early release.
Key points to remember about PATTERN:
- Because the risk factors for re-offending can differ between men and women, scoring varies slightly by gender.
- Risk factors belong in 2 categories: static and dynamic. People in prison can take steps to change their dynamic risk scores.
- PATTERN calculates two separate scores: a person’s risk of re-offending in general and their risk of re-offending with an act of violence.
- PATTERN scores determine whether someone is in a minimum-, low-, medium-, or high-risk category for re-offending.
- For someone to be eligible for early release, their general and violent risk categories must both be minimum or low.
- See Appendix A of the 2020 Review and Revalidation of the First Step Act Risk Assessment Tool report for complete definitions of each PATTERN risk factor.
https://www.ojp.gov/library/publications/2020-review-and-revalidation-first-step-act-risk-assessment-tool
- Early release to home confinement or a halfway house, or community supervision, is available for those who score as a low or minimum risk.
- To be eligible for early release, both the general and violent risk categories must be minimum or low.
Release to a halfway house or home confinement requires that a person maintain a low or minimum risk score for at least two consecutive assessment periods.
For probation or supervised release, a person must have a low or minimum risk score before release for the last reassessment period.
Prison wardens can approve early release for anyone, regardless of the risk level.
Click below for Bureau of Prisons PATTERN score sheets:
List of static risk factors
- What is a person’s age at the time of assessment?
Here, older is better for both the general and violent risk score.
- Was the current offense violent?
Click below for the list of federal offenses that PATTERN considers to be violent offenses:
Violent Offense Codes for PATTERN Risk Assessment
| Category | Federal Offenses such as (below) and/or any qualifying military or non-federal offenses |
|---|---|
| Aircraft and Motor Vehicle Offenses | 18 USC 31 – 34, 36, & 37 |
| Arson | 18 USC 81 |
| Assault | 18 USC 111 – 119 |
| Biological/Chemical Weapons | 18 USC 175, 229, & 2283 |
| Child Abuse | 18 USC 2258 |
| Child Sex Trafficking | 18 USC 1591 |
| Drugs, Death or Serious Bodily Injury | 21 USC 841 |
| Explosives | 18 USC 831, 832, & 842 – 844 |
| Firearms | 18 USC 922 – 924, 929; & 26 USC 5851 – 5872 |
| Genocide | 18 USC 1091 |
| Homicide | 18 USC 1111 – 1114, & 1116 – 1121 |
| Kidnapping | 18 USC 1201 – 1204 |
| Jury/Witness Tampering, Retaliation | 18 USC 1501 – 1510, & 1513 |
| Mutiny and Riot | 18 USC 1792 |
| National Defense | 18 USC 2385; 22 USC 2778; 42 USC 2077, 2122, 2131, 2274 – 2275, & 2284 |
| Protection of Certain Identities | 50 USC 3121 |
| Protection of Unborn Children | 18 USC 1841 |
| Racketeering | 18 USC 1925, 1951, 1958, & 1959 |
| Robbery/Theft Robbery | 18 USC 2113 – 2115, 2118, 2119, & 2213 |
| Searches & Seizures | 18 USC 2231 |
| Sex Offenses | 8 USC 1328; 18 USC 1591, 2241 – 2248, 2251 – 2252, 2421 – 2429, 4320; & 10 USC 920 |
| Solicitation to Commit Crime of Violence | 18 USC 373 |
| Slavery, Peonage | 18 USC 1581 – 1590, 1592, & 1597 |
| Terrorism | 18 USC 229, 1992, 2331 – 2339, & 8124P |
| Threats | 18 USC 871, 879, & 1751 |
| Violence | 18 USC 36, 37, 351, 521, 2261, 2262, 2280, 2281, 2291, 2340; & 49 USC 60123(b) |
| War Crimes | 18 USC 2441 |
*Due to changes in the law, including statutory revisions and judicial decisions, this list may be periodically revised and updated. It is recommended that readers consult their attorney to obtain advice about any legal matter.
SOURCE: https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/docs/fsa_pattern_violent_offense_codes.pdf
- What is a person’s criminal history score?
PATTERN uses the US Sentencing Guidelines to calculate criminal history scores. A person’s criminal history score is in their presentence investigation report.
List of dynamic risk factors
- How many in-prison infraction convictions does a person have (all)?
- How many in-prison Infraction convictions are serious and violent?
- What is the amount of time since the last infraction (any)?
- What is the amount of time since the last infraction (serious and violent only)?
- How many approved programs has a person completed?
- What work programming does a person have on file?
This factor is assessed based on the number of technical, vocational, or prison-industry (UNICOR) programs completed during a person’s current incarceration.
- What drug treatment program has a person received while incarcerated?
This factors whether the person has a drug treatment needs or not, completed residential drug treatment during incarceration, completed other drug treatment, and whether the person’s presentence investigation indicates the need but has had no treatment during incarceration.
- What is a person’s level of education?
This question factors, for example, whether the BOP verifies a High School degree or GED completion, or is the person enrolled and progressing in a GED program, or does the person have no verified degree and is not participating in a GED program.
- Is the person in compliance with their BOP financial responsibility obligations?
People who refuse to apply monies from their commissary account toward restitution and dependents negatively affect their PATTERN scores.
- What is the person’s history of violence, if any?
- Does the person have any history of escape attempts?
CONCLUSION
The First Step Act creates PATTERN to help determine who is eligible for early release from federal prison. Eligibility for early release is a function of a person’s PATTERN risk level (assuming they don’t have a disqualifying offense).
The Bureau of Prisons must reassess everyone’s PATTERN scores and include dynamic factors, such as the number of programs completed, so that people can move from higher to lower levels of risk.
